Thursday, August 27, 2015

On The Theory Of The "Sleeping Electorate"

From ONW's Susanna Kelly:

Most people take two, perhaps three weeks vacation a year.

That means that for all the other summer weeks, they're back at work, starting the day as usual by listening to newscasts in their car during commutes, spending lots of time on their computers and Internet-rigged up (CHANGE) devices and chatting around the water cooler - just like they do the rest of the year.

On top of that, even if they are at the cottage, many of those same cottages have now been equipped with the Internet.

And there are fewer and fewer people who live in rural Canada, making their living by working the soil in relative isolation.

So the idea that many people haven't heard of, or heard much of, the Duffy trial is pretty unlikely.

It was the lead story on Internet, television and radio newscasts as well as on newspapers' front pages for many days.

And even if, as is the case with many in the electorate, they only remember the headlines, those very headlines have been very damaging.

I'm about half-ready to buy this.  Today's Forum poll suggest's that the Duffy trial has had a major negative effect on CPC numbers, though these are supposed to be the dog days.  But of course that's only Forum.  There will, however, be an EKOS poll tomorrow and Frank Graves is hinting at some pretty interesting results:

So there you have it.

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Robert Jago Soldiers On

I think Robert and I were the first two bloggers in Canadian history to force a candidate to step down for things they'd said  on the Internet.  But in '08 Robert only scored one Green (for anti-Semitic comments, I think); whereas I nailed a Tory, a Dipper, and a Tory campaign official.  That's why I've got part of an exhibit devoted to me in the Museum of Civilization and Robert doesn't.

As usual, the Yankees were ahead of us by a decade.  In 1996 one of Bob Dole's campaign staffers had to step down when he and his wife were found to have participated in a listserv for swingers, if I remember it correctly.  Anyway, I've not got time to put the detective work in these days, but Jago is still at it.  He's greased one or two Tories already this cycle, and is promising that there's more to come.

 This is his latest.  Keep an eye on his blog.   By the end of election 2015, someone might owe Robert a Senate appointment.

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

The Union Pearson Express (UPX)

$27 per trip.  Who knows how many $1,000,000s  to build.  

This means, officially, that every transit line they've built in this town since 1986 when I moved here has been a boondoggle.

(Mind you, maybe its packed during the rush-hour.  But I doubt it.)

Saturday, August 15, 2015

Leger Poll Puts Tories in 3rd

The NDP has 33 percent of the vote, up one point since last month, while the Conservatives are polling at 27 percent, down five points, the Leger research group said.

The Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, are polling in second with 28 percent of the vote, up three points.

Leger is a solid pollster, though I don't think they work the ROC very often.  Anyway, they confirm one thing that everyone knows; Justin helped himself in the first debate.  You can also infer that the Duffy Trial is beginning to take its toll on CPC numbers.  Sure nobody but the poli-nerds are paying attention, but its kind of like an ugly buzz in the air that you hear whenever the news comes on, whether you're listening or not.

Friday, August 07, 2015

1st Debate: So How'd They Do?

Justin Trudeau Our guy did good.  Articulate.  Didn't stumble (though I missed his closing remarks, which I hear weren't so great).  Scored points in the one-on-ones, got off a few good lines:  "And then they were 9.  And so shall that number be 9." and etc.

Stephen Harper  Played defense all night, for the most part well.  Some shots got through on the economy; he admitted we're on the verge of a recession.  And he stumbled re the issue of all of his Senate appointments who are prison bound.  He was weirdly articulate on environmental issues & pipelines, displaying detailed knowledge re Alberta's carbon pricing system.  So, perhaps, a weak point well covered.  Not that I liked his answers on these questions, just that they were relatively well delivered.

Elizabeth May Did well, although at times to me she sounded like she had stumbled in from a wonkfest.  She actually forgave Harper for some of his past-policies.  But if I was in the "throw them all out and vote Green" mood and I stumbled onto the debate and watched her, I would be favorably impressed.

Tom Mulcair had weird body language issues.  I don't think he blinked once the whole debate, and he tried so hard to avoid the "Angry Tom" persona that he wound up sounding sedated.  He took a few hits from Trudeau on Que. Separatism and the SCC (Trudeau's "And Lo!  Nine Judges appeared in the East" line), but later on spoke forcefully (although still in an oddly subdued tone) on the Senate.

The Debate Format Nobody expects CDN political debates to be exciting, but this one was probably as entertaining as it was possible to make it.  The format forced interaction between the candidates, which I think actually worked against Stephen Harper.  He appeared diminished.  A mere mortal among mortals.

Thursday, August 06, 2015

Pre-Debate Good News Poll, And That Thing With The Tits

Albeit from a company I've never heard of (or not heard much of):
Might write more about the Trudeau boobs thing later or not.  My first response is this:
Are pride parades safe for LPC candidates anymore or have they been taken over by the NDP?  If so I'd say skip 'em.  Stay away from them queers.

PS. I may tweet the debate tonight, or not.  I may go out and eat chicken wings with my wife and watch old UFC clips on Sportsnet 5.  It doesn't matter.  Its boring and the after-analysis is all about bubble-dwellers trying to guess what folks outside the bubble are thinking, when for the most part they are thinking about the baseball game.